{
  "schema_version": "jp-election-municipality-proportional-swing-graph.v1",
  "dataset_id": "jp-election-db.derived-shape.graph",
  "family": "graph",
  "dataset": "municipality-proportional-swing-2025-2026",
  "source_release_version": "2026-05-03-v050",
  "selector": {
    "prefecture_code": "15",
    "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
    "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
    "party_id": "CDR_TJU",
    "party_label": "中道+ゆうこく（2025=公明+立憲）",
    "party_label_en": "Centrist + Yukoku bloc (2025=Komeito+CDP)",
    "scope": "prefecture",
    "ranking_id": "",
    "ranking_label": "",
    "ranking_label_en": ""
  },
  "comparison": {
    "comparison_key": "20250720_hc_pr__20260208_hr_block",
    "baseline_election_set_key": "20250720_hc",
    "baseline_election_date": "2025-07-20",
    "baseline_vote_system": "pr",
    "target_election_set_key": "20260208_hr",
    "target_election_date": "2026-02-08",
    "target_vote_system": "block"
  },
  "metric": {
    "primary_metric_id": "votes_change_rate_pct",
    "primary_metric_label": "票数増減率",
    "secondary_metric_id": "votes_delta",
    "secondary_metric_label": "票数差"
  },
  "summary": {
    "point_grain": "municipality",
    "point_count": 38,
    "municipality_count": 38,
    "min_votes_change_rate_pct": -28.891806,
    "max_votes_change_rate_pct": -5.873628
  },
  "municipalities": [
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "153850",
      "municipality_name": "阿賀町",
      "municipality_name_en": "Aga-machi",
      "baseline_votes": 1547.919,
      "target_votes": 1457.0,
      "votes_delta": -90.919,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -5.873628,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 28.819941,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 27.620853,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -1.199088
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "153613",
      "municipality_name": "田上町",
      "municipality_name_en": "Tagami-machi",
      "baseline_votes": 1709.988,
      "target_votes": 1558.0,
      "votes_delta": -151.988,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -8.88825,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 29.599931,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 27.70763,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -1.892301
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "152064",
      "municipality_name": "新発田市",
      "municipality_name_en": "Shibata-shi",
      "baseline_votes": 12390.278,
      "target_votes": 11274.0,
      "votes_delta": -1116.278,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -9.009306,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 27.397572,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 25.009428,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -2.388144
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "152269",
      "municipality_name": "南魚沼市",
      "municipality_name_en": "Minamiuonuma-shi",
      "baseline_votes": 6513.888,
      "target_votes": 5910.0,
      "votes_delta": -603.888,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -9.270777,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 23.949879,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 22.440766,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -1.509113
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "152099",
      "municipality_name": "加茂市",
      "municipality_name_en": "Kamo-shi",
      "baseline_votes": 3788.783,
      "target_votes": 3432.0,
      "votes_delta": -356.783,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -9.416823,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 29.315869,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 26.827171,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -2.488698
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "152129",
      "municipality_name": "村上市",
      "municipality_name_en": "Murakami-shi",
      "baseline_votes": 7792.929,
      "target_votes": 7048.0,
      "votes_delta": -744.929,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -9.559037,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 28.083639,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 24.838766,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -3.244873
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "152242",
      "municipality_name": "佐渡市",
      "municipality_name_en": "Sado-shi",
      "baseline_votes": 6832.023,
      "target_votes": 6167.0,
      "votes_delta": -665.023,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -9.73391,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 26.296229,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 24.206147,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -2.090082
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "151017",
      "municipality_name": "新潟市北区",
      "municipality_name_en": "Kita-ku",
      "baseline_votes": 8953.271,
      "target_votes": 7980.0,
      "votes_delta": -973.271,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -10.870563,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 27.331556,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 25.084085,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -2.247471
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "154822",
      "municipality_name": "津南町",
      "municipality_name_en": "Tsunan-machi",
      "baseline_votes": 1222.614,
      "target_votes": 1086.0,
      "votes_delta": -136.614,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -11.173927,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 24.67933,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 22.653316,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -2.026014
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "151084",
      "municipality_name": "新潟市西蒲区",
      "municipality_name_en": "Nishikan-ku",
      "baseline_votes": 7443.731,
      "target_votes": 6608.0,
      "votes_delta": -835.731,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -11.227313,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 29.209429,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 25.659147,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -3.550282
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "151076",
      "municipality_name": "新潟市西区",
      "municipality_name_en": "Nishi-ku",
      "baseline_votes": 19881.714,
      "target_votes": 17643.0,
      "votes_delta": -2238.714,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -11.260166,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 26.692597,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 24.276239,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -2.416358
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "152277",
      "municipality_name": "胎内市",
      "municipality_name_en": "Tainai-shi",
      "baseline_votes": 3678.685,
      "target_votes": 3252.0,
      "votes_delta": -426.685,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -11.598846,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 26.058547,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 23.132736,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -2.925811
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "152234",
      "municipality_name": "阿賀野市",
      "municipality_name_en": "Agano-shi",
      "baseline_votes": 5134.414,
      "target_votes": 4533.0,
      "votes_delta": -601.414,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -11.713391,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 25.609327,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 22.643488,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -2.965839
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "151033",
      "municipality_name": "新潟市中央区",
      "municipality_name_en": "Chuo-ku",
      "baseline_votes": 21860.261,
      "target_votes": 19154.0,
      "votes_delta": -2706.261,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -12.37982,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 25.3326,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 22.890674,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -2.441926
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "151068",
      "municipality_name": "新潟市南区",
      "municipality_name_en": "Minami-ku",
      "baseline_votes": 5259.841,
      "target_votes": 4608.0,
      "votes_delta": -651.841,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -12.392789,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 26.609203,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 23.162763,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -3.44644
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "153427",
      "municipality_name": "弥彦村",
      "municipality_name_en": "Yahiko-mura",
      "baseline_votes": 1148.971,
      "target_votes": 1005.0,
      "votes_delta": -143.971,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -12.530429,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 27.599592,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 23.88308,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -3.716512
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "152161",
      "municipality_name": "糸魚川市",
      "municipality_name_en": "Itoigawa-shi",
      "baseline_votes": 5095.939,
      "target_votes": 4429.0,
      "votes_delta": -666.939,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -13.087657,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 23.99105,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 21.108569,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -2.882481
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "151009",
      "municipality_name": "新潟市",
      "municipality_name_en": "Niigata-shi",
      "baseline_votes": 99044.172,
      "target_votes": 86070.0,
      "votes_delta": -12974.172,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -13.09938,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 26.909789,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 24.089743,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -2.820046
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "152226",
      "municipality_name": "上越市",
      "municipality_name_en": "Joetsu-shi",
      "baseline_votes": 25698.143,
      "target_votes": 22123.0,
      "votes_delta": -3575.143,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -13.912067,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 27.612222,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 25.28603,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -2.326192
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "152250",
      "municipality_name": "魚沼市",
      "municipality_name_en": "Uonuma-shi",
      "baseline_votes": 4910.015,
      "target_votes": 4220.0,
      "votes_delta": -690.015,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -14.053216,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 27.384356,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 24.832294,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -2.552062
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "152102",
      "municipality_name": "十日町市",
      "municipality_name_en": "Tokamachi-shi",
      "baseline_votes": 6744.499,
      "target_votes": 5793.0,
      "votes_delta": -951.499,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -14.107779,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 26.098982,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 23.599625,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -2.499357
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "153079",
      "municipality_name": "聖籠町",
      "municipality_name_en": "Seiro-machi",
      "baseline_votes": 1502.101,
      "target_votes": 1289.0,
      "votes_delta": -213.101,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -14.186862,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 22.786726,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 19.855207,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -2.931519
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "154610",
      "municipality_name": "湯沢町",
      "municipality_name_en": "Yuzawa-machi",
      "baseline_votes": 993.216,
      "target_votes": 851.0,
      "votes_delta": -142.216,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -14.318738,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 24.787023,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 23.678353,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -1.10867
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "151050",
      "municipality_name": "新潟市秋葉区",
      "municipality_name_en": "Akiha-ku",
      "baseline_votes": 10252.241,
      "target_votes": 8733.0,
      "votes_delta": -1519.241,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -14.818624,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 28.052209,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 24.893107,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -3.159102
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "154059",
      "municipality_name": "出雲崎町",
      "municipality_name_en": "Izumozaki-machi",
      "baseline_votes": 555.318,
      "target_votes": 471.0,
      "votes_delta": -84.318,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -15.183733,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 25.093448,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 22.123063,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -2.970385
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "151041",
      "municipality_name": "新潟市江南区",
      "municipality_name_en": "Konan-ku",
      "baseline_votes": 8384.855,
      "target_votes": 7109.0,
      "votes_delta": -1275.855,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -15.216184,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 26.706762,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 23.277669,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -3.429093
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "155047",
      "municipality_name": "刈羽村",
      "municipality_name_en": "Kariwa-mura",
      "baseline_votes": 582.16,
      "target_votes": 492.0,
      "votes_delta": -90.16,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -15.487151,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 23.976936,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 21.289485,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -2.687451
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "152170",
      "municipality_name": "妙高市",
      "municipality_name_en": "Myoko-shi",
      "baseline_votes": 4427.453,
      "target_votes": 3738.0,
      "votes_delta": -689.453,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -15.572226,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 28.466875,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 25.499693,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -2.967182
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "152048",
      "municipality_name": "三条市",
      "municipality_name_en": "Sanjo-shi",
      "baseline_votes": 13322.658,
      "target_votes": 11185.0,
      "votes_delta": -2137.658,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -16.045282,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 27.382452,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 23.608502,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -3.77395
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "151025",
      "municipality_name": "新潟市東区",
      "municipality_name_en": "Higashi-ku",
      "baseline_votes": 17008.258,
      "target_votes": 14235.0,
      "votes_delta": -2773.258,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -16.305362,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 27.73191,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 24.604615,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -3.127295
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "152188",
      "municipality_name": "五泉市",
      "municipality_name_en": "Gosen-shi",
      "baseline_votes": 6174.932,
      "target_votes": 5135.0,
      "votes_delta": -1039.932,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -16.84119,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 26.886106,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 23.242656,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -3.64345
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "152137",
      "municipality_name": "燕市",
      "municipality_name_en": "Tsubame-shi",
      "baseline_votes": 10712.529,
      "target_votes": 8861.0,
      "votes_delta": -1851.529,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -17.283771,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 27.032045,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 22.862967,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -4.169078
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "152110",
      "municipality_name": "見附市",
      "municipality_name_en": "Mitsuke-shi",
      "baseline_votes": 5519.665,
      "target_votes": 4558.0,
      "votes_delta": -961.665,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -17.422525,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 27.291298,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 23.406769,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -3.884529
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "155810",
      "municipality_name": "関川村",
      "municipality_name_en": "Sekikawa-mura",
      "baseline_votes": 807.502,
      "target_votes": 631.0,
      "votes_delta": -176.502,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -21.857779,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 30.33441,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 24.047256,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -6.287154
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "152021",
      "municipality_name": "長岡市",
      "municipality_name_en": "Nagaoka-shi",
      "baseline_votes": 34640.821,
      "target_votes": 26977.0,
      "votes_delta": -7663.821,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -22.12367,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 26.452058,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 22.19069,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -4.261368
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "152080",
      "municipality_name": "小千谷市",
      "municipality_name_en": "Ojiya-shi",
      "baseline_votes": 5200.335,
      "target_votes": 3949.0,
      "votes_delta": -1251.335,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -24.062584,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 28.67094,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 23.478002,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -5.192938
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "152056",
      "municipality_name": "柏崎市",
      "municipality_name_en": "Kashiwazaki-shi",
      "baseline_votes": 10932.876,
      "target_votes": 8297.0,
      "votes_delta": -2635.876,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -24.10963,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 27.130744,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 22.541295,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -4.589449
    },
    {
      "prefecture_code": "15",
      "prefecture_name": "新潟県",
      "prefecture_name_en": "Niigata",
      "jis_code": "155861",
      "municipality_name": "粟島浦村",
      "municipality_name_en": "Awashimaura-mura",
      "baseline_votes": 54.846,
      "target_votes": 39.0,
      "votes_delta": -15.846,
      "votes_change_rate_pct": -28.891806,
      "baseline_vote_share_pct_muni": 24.817195,
      "target_vote_share_pct_muni": 18.224299,
      "vote_share_delta_pct_pt": -6.592896
    }
  ]
}
